16.04.2026
Reading time: 3 min

Real Madrid vs Alaves – Free Prediction (21.04.2026)

Real Madrid
LDLLW

21 April 2026
19:30
La Liga

VS

Alaves
DDWDL

Player Ratings & Team Rating

Real Madrid

Average rating
6.78

Top players:

  • Kylian Mbappé — 8.06 (41 g)
  • A. Tchouaméni — 7.24 (2 g)
  • Gonzalo García — 7.17 (10 g)
  • E. Camavinga — 7.07 (2 g)
  • Franco Mastantuono — 7.07 (3 g)

Alaves

Average rating
6.78

Top players:

  • Carlos Vicente — 7.87 (8 g)
  • Toni Martínez — 7.35 (11 g)
  • Raúl Fernández — 7.33 (0 g)
  • M. Diarra — 7.30 (0 g)
  • C. Benavídez — 7.07 (0 g)

Clean Sheets / Both Teams To Score

Real Madrid
Alaves


Strength


63% / 38%

Attacking Potential


48% / 52%

Defensive Potential


63% / 37%

Poisson Distribution


78% / 22%

Strength H2H


100% / 0%

Goals H2H


80% / 20%

Wins The Game



45% / 45% / 10%

Introduction

In the 33rd round of La Liga, Real Madrid will face Alaves at the iconic Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. This match holds significant implications for both teams as they strive for critical points in the standings.

Form Analysis

Real Madrid’s recent form has been a mix of highs and lows, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. The team has shown resilience, highlighted by a hard-fought victory against Atletico Madrid, though they have struggled against top-tier opponents like Bayern München and Mallorca.

On the other hand, Alaves has had a challenging run, managing only one win in their last ten matches. Their recent performances include a series of draws and a disappointing loss, indicating a struggle to secure victories and climb out of the relegation zone. Their inconsistency makes them a difficult opponent for any team.

Statistical Analysis

When we compare the statistics of both teams, Real Madrid boasts a home form of 67%, showcasing their strength at the Bernabéu. Their attacking prowess is evident with an average of 3 goals in recent head-to-head encounters with Alaves, indicating their capability to score multiple times in a match.

Conversely, Alaves has struggled on the road with a 40% form, which points to their difficulties in securing points away from home. Their defense has also been leaky, conceding many goals recently, which could be exploited by a potent Real Madrid attack.

Head-to-Head History

The historical encounters between Real Madrid and Alaves heavily favor the former, with Real Madrid winning four out of the last five matches. This trend underscores Real Madrid’s dominance in this fixture, often winning comfortably and showcasing their ability to control the game.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place in favorable weather conditions, with clear skies and a temperature of 17°C, which should not adversely affect the players’ performance. The home advantage for Real Madrid cannot be overstated, as the atmosphere at the Bernabéu often propels the team to perform at their best.

Additionally, the psychological edge of playing at home, combined with Alaves’s recent struggles, could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this match. Real Madrid will aim to capitalize on every opportunity to secure a vital three points.

Prediction and Justification

Given the current form and historical context, Real Madrid is favored to emerge victorious in this encounter, with a predicted score of 3:1. Their offensive capabilities, combined with Alaves’s defensive vulnerabilities, suggest that Real Madrid will find the net multiple times while ensuring they limit Alaves’s scoring opportunities.

Prediction

Real Madrid is expected to win this match, leveraging their home advantage and superior form.

Predicted Score: 3:1