11.04.2026
Reading time: 4 min

AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk – Free Prediction (16.04.2026)

AZ Alkmaar
LWLWW

16 April 2026
16:45
UEFA Europa Conference League

VS

Shakhtar Donetsk
WWLW

Player Ratings & Team Rating

AZ Alkmaar

Average rating
6.91

Top players:

  • T. Parrott — 7.95 (28 g)
  • R. Owusu-Oduro — 7.85 (0 g)
  • S. Mijnans — 7.37 (17 g)
  • Alexandre Penetra — 7.30 (2 g)
  • R. Daal — 7.29 (3 g)

Shakhtar Donetsk

Average rating
7.05

Top players:

  • L. Traoré — 7.87 (3 g)
  • H. Sudakov — 7.75 (0 g)
  • V. Bondar — 7.59 (2 g)
  • Alisson Santana — 7.53 (3 g)
  • Pedrinho — 7.51 (1 g)

Clean Sheets / Both Teams To Score

AZ Alkmaar
Shakhtar Donetsk


Strength


47% / 53%

Attacking Potential


53% / 47%

Defensive Potential


38% / 63%

Poisson Distribution


75% / 25%

Strength H2H


20% / 80%

Goals H2H


33% / 67%

Wins The Game



10% / 45% / 45%

Introduction

In the UEFA Europa Conference League, AZ Alkmaar will face off against Shakhtar Donetsk in a pivotal clash. This match holds significant importance as both teams seek to improve their standings and secure vital points in the group stage.

Form Analysis

AZ Alkmaar has shown a mixed bag of results in their recent outings, with four wins in their last ten matches, but they suffered a disappointing defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk in their previous encounter. Their home form remains relatively strong, boasting a 60% success rate in their last five home games, suggesting they can be a formidable opponent on familiar ground.

On the other hand, Shakhtar Donetsk has struggled to find consistency, managing only one victory in their last ten matches and experiencing three defeats. Their recent form shows a stark contrast, especially following their solid 3-0 win against AZ Alkmaar, which might serve as a psychological boost heading into this rematch. However, their away performance needs improvement, as they have only a 67% success rate in their last five away matches.

Statistical Analysis

In terms of overall statistics, AZ Alkmaar has demonstrated a better recent winning percentage compared to Shakhtar Donetsk, despite the latter winning their last encounter convincingly. The historical head-to-head statistics show that both teams have had their fair share of wins, but Shakhtar’s recent victory could play a crucial role in the mindset of both squads.

Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with their previous encounters averaging over 4 goals per match. This suggests that fans can expect an exciting game with opportunities for both sides to find the net. Additionally, the defensive vulnerabilities exhibited by both teams in recent matches could lead to a high-scoring affair.

Head-to-Head History

The two teams have met twice recently, with Shakhtar Donetsk claiming a decisive victory in their last encounter while the previous match ended in a thrilling draw. This history adds an extra layer of anticipation for the upcoming clash, as both teams will look to assert their dominance.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place at AFAS Stadion, providing AZ Alkmaar with the home advantage, which is often a crucial factor in football. Weather conditions could potentially influence play, but no significant disruptions are expected. Both teams will be motivated, with the stakes high as they battle for crucial points that could impact their standings in the tournament.

Overall, the atmosphere in the stadium is likely to be electric, with fans eager to support their teams in this important fixture. The psychological edge gained from Shakhtar’s previous win may also play a significant role in how both teams approach the match.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the form and statistical analysis, Shakhtar Donetsk may have the upper hand due to their recent head-to-head success and AZ Alkmaar’s inconsistencies. However, the home advantage for AZ could level the playing field, making this a closely contested match. Given the current data and both teams’ scoring abilities, the most likely outcome is a draw, with the predicted score being 1:1.

Prediction

The match is expected to be closely contested, with a strong possibility of a draw.

Predicted Score: 1:1