12.04.2026
Reading time: 3 min

Lens vs Toulouse – Free Prediction (17.04.2026)

Lens
LWLW

17 April 2026
18:45
Ligue 1

VS

Toulouse
LWWL

Player Ratings & Team Rating

Lens

Average rating
6.92

Top players:

  • M. Udol — 7.40 (2 g)
  • R. Aguilar — 7.30 (2 g)
  • W. Saïd — 7.30 (11 g)
  • A. Diouf — 7.30 (0 g)
  • F. Medina — 7.20 (0 g)

Toulouse

Average rating
6.70

Top players:

  • A. Dønnum — 7.77 (5 g)
  • Y. Gboho — 7.24 (10 g)
  • C. Cásseres — 7.23 (1 g)
  • V. Sierro — 7.20 (0 g)
  • M. Sauer — 7.09 (1 g)

Clean Sheets / Both Teams To Score

Lens
Toulouse


Strength


54% / 46%

Attacking Potential


63% / 38%

Defensive Potential


53% / 47%

Poisson Distribution


72% / 28%

Strength H2H


71% / 29%

Goals H2H


73% / 27%

Wins The Game



45% / 45% / 10%

Introduction

In the 30th round of Ligue 1, Lens is set to face Toulouse at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis. This match presents a pivotal opportunity for both teams as they strive for crucial points in the league.

Form Analysis

Lens enters this match with a solid form, having secured four victories in their last ten matches, remaining unbeaten in that span. Their most recent outing saw them triumph over Angers with a commanding 5-1 score, showcasing their attacking prowess.

On the other hand, Toulouse’s form has been less impressive, with only two wins in their last ten fixtures and two losses. Their last match against Paris Saint-Germain ended in a 3-1 defeat, indicating struggles against top-tier opponents.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics, Lens has displayed strength particularly at home, with a home form success rate of 47%. In contrast, Toulouse has struggled on the road, achieving only a 40% form in their away games. This discrepancy could play a significant role in the match outcome.

Furthermore, Lens has maintained a solid head-to-head record against Toulouse, winning three of the last five encounters, which adds psychological advantage heading into this match. Statistically, Lens holds a 45% chance of winning compared to Toulouse’s 10%, indicating a clear disparity in performance expectations.

Head-to-Head History

The recent head-to-head matches between Lens and Toulouse reveal a competitive history, where Lens has emerged victorious in three out of the last five meetings. Their last encounter ended with Lens winning 3-0, which could boost their confidence going into this match.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place under overcast conditions with a temperature of 8°C, which could influence player performance. The home advantage at Stade Bollaert-Delelis is also significant, as Lens typically performs better in familiar surroundings, bolstered by the support of their home fans.

Additionally, the urgency of the match adds another layer of intensity, as both teams aim to secure vital points in the standings. For Lens, a win could solidify their position in the upper half of the table, while Toulouse desperately seeks points to climb away from the relegation zone.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the current form, statistical analysis, and home advantage, it is reasonable to predict that Lens will manage to secure a victory. With their offensive capabilities and recent head-to-head success against Toulouse, the expected outcome is a win for Lens with a score of 2:1.

Prediction

Lens is likely to win, capitalizing on their home advantage and current form.

Predicted Score: 2:1